How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.